The UK’s own spiritless, turgid election drew to its wet fart of a predictable climax last week.
But something far more dramatic was unfolding across the channel in France’s elections.
Specifically the Front National – or National Rally, as it now seems to be called – had emerged as the frontrunner for election victory after the first round of French voting.
As depressing a reality as that was, I wasn’t entirely sure why commentators were acting shocked. Such a turning of the tide has been telegraphed for years now.
Indeed the very reason for the existence of Emmanuel Macron and his centrist party was as a seemingly desperate emergency plan to stop both the far right or the far left from major gains in the elections of 2017.
You might recall that neither Macron nor his party even seemed to *exist* prior to very late in that election – when they were abruptly manufactured and then parachuted in to the mix to stop both the leftists and the far right, but especially Le Pen and the Front National.
Because Marine Le Pen and co were making gains at that point, partly riding the momentum of the MAGA movement in the US, plowing the fertile ground of the culture wars, and milking the trendy ‘alt right’ troll industry.
All of that on top of the general working class discontent and societal divisions in France, of course, where there is also widespread angst over the problematic legacy of mass immigration.
Macron was the definition of a manufactured politician and a manufactured political movement.
What’s baffling then is why Macron called this surprise snap election, presumably being fully aware of how well placed both the extreme right and the far left were to continue to make major headway.
To whose benefit did he stage this election now?
Last week my thoughts turned conspiratorial, wondering if we were seeing a controlled shift of power to the extreme right.
Had the kingmakers and string-pullers in France decided that Le Pen and co’s time had come?
Even more conspiratorial, I was also looking out for a staged terror attack or comparable incident to occur between the first round of voting and the decisive vote.
Islamist-linked terror incidents are always to the benefit of the right-wing parties or entities, and often at precisely the right time.
I actually predicted just such a terror attack during the last French election and it unfolded right on time. And as I said then, it was obviously for the benefit of the Front National.
Note also that Le Pen has some family-based links to the Israeli Mossad, which I highlighted in this extensive article in 2016.
That article, by the way, was titled ‘Seeds of Fascism’ – and what I laid out there seems to become more and more relevant every year: from Le Pen’s rise, to the election victory of Geert Wilders in the Netherlands earlier this year, to Israel’s current campaign in the West Bank.
Honestly, if you want some more context and connections concerning some of the less obvious dynamics behind so much of what’s going on in our societies and politics right now, it’d be worth re-reading that piece here.
It has genuinely become one of my go-to reference points to remind myself of certain agendas and connections.
That being said, such a terror attack didn’t transpire this time. Though it might still be something to watch for, as the political crisis in France continues.
Moreover, things took a sharp turn at the weekend, with the leftist parties in fact emerging with the most gains from the second phase of voting – and the National Rally being reduced to third place.
Inevitably, conspiracy theories immediately broke out among supporters of the National Rally and among right-wing commentators: the election was rigged, they say – there’s no way the far right could be winning a week ago and yet reduced to third place now.
A shift like that couldn’t possibly happen, they say.
I’ll admit, I found it a little odd too. I was wholly braced for far right victory in France – largely because the media made it seem like this was the state of play.
On the other hand, it’s entirely feasible that after the results from the first round of voting, French liberals, leftists and young people had a panic attack and mobilised to make sure the far right didn’t win the second phase.
The young people in France really appear to have made the difference here.
Quite possibly a lot of them were complacent or unengaged in the first instance (France isn’t the only country where progressives and the young might be generally disenfranchised by mainstream or establishment politics), but were much more motivated to make their votes count once the threat of the National Rally was palpable.
Even Killian Mbappe was calling the young voters to action.
That would account for the big shift between last week and this weekend – without the need for accusations of election rigging.
Not that I would rule out election rigging in general. But anyone could see with their own eyes the sheer scale of young people and progressives out en-masse to protest against the far right – and, presumably, to keep them from power by making every vote count.
We also know that the left-leaning parties and voters had organised to vote tactically – to vote, in other words, on a constituency to constituency basis, choosing whichever candidate or party was necessary in each specific location to beat the National Rally.
It seems that’s how the course of the election was changed. If so, it was actually very clever: and a fitting utilisation of democracy.
There is, for that matter, a tired tendency now for supporters of the hard-right to claim elections have been rigged: the obvious example being Trump’s and Qanon’s inability to accept the results of the 2020 US election.
They’re still clinging to that accusation in 2024.
I won’t go over all the reasons again here, but I don’t – and never have – bought the idea that the 2020 US election was rigged.
But even in last week’s UK elections, there were Reform UK supporters claiming the results were rigged to limit the right-wing group’s success.
Their reason? ‘Well, because everyone I spoke to said they were voting for Reform – so how come we didn’t win the election?’
Well, genius, it’s because everyone you spoke to was in your own echo chamber – and there’s a whole country full of people outside of that echo chamber. It’s not rocket science.
Besides, Reform UK was very successful in these UK elections by its standards. Nigel Farage has finally won a seat in parliament after about fifty-seven previous failed attempts.
So cheer up, guys – you won something.
But again, as far as these French elections go, I acknowledge the shift from right to left seemed conspicuously abrupt: even if it makes sense, given the reasons highlighted above.
In France, however, while the mass mobilisation and strategic effectiveness of those on the left has been remarkable, the French now have a hung parliament. And none of France’s social or political problems are going away.
The far right will also still loom as a substantial force, casting its shadow over everything that goes on.
What’s absolutely clear, from both the far right’s success in the first round of voting and the left’s success in the second stage, is that in France – and across much of the Western world – people are entirely disenfranchised with the establishment.
And, for better or worse, major political and social upheavals are increasingly inevitable.
